Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 16.235730 18.532979 21.008283 23.869911 27.083073 30.575560 34.655076
2025-01-26 13.051855 16.209760 19.874219 24.425101 29.908531 36.284952 44.242921
2025-02-02 11.509986 15.086263 19.436066 25.086482 32.199516 40.821021 52.022882
2025-02-09 9.972974 13.726158 18.488974 24.929906 33.359432 43.956514 58.218582
2025-02-16 8.719712 12.530140 17.549258 24.579320 34.094912 46.439010 63.560051
2025-02-23 7.859040 11.743833 17.036123 24.686107 35.356449 49.589385 69.861359
2025-03-02 7.197883 11.150086 16.702985 24.963603 36.803582 52.998146 76.620217
2025-03-09 6.568589 10.529464 16.259637 25.017850 37.895378 55.926318 82.815407
2025-03-16 5.941387 9.844447 15.652289 24.762593 38.487781 58.137604 88.060529
2025-03-23 5.515763 9.424162 15.393438 24.983336 39.756789 61.340656 94.839811
2025-03-30 5.266429 9.256151 15.497081 25.744703 41.854960 65.828518 103.681344
2025-04-06 4.815333 8.716003 14.970889 25.475725 42.338710 67.909652 108.999588
2025-04-13 4.189133 7.834280 13.842070 24.185749 41.174515 67.471785 110.543943
2025-04-20 3.992410 7.674450 13.884386 24.800306 43.073551 71.845459 119.720229
2025-04-27 3.820870 7.540815 13.954277 25.452953 45.052541 76.414252 129.380257
2025-05-04 3.528829 7.160896 13.569581 25.300246 45.676062 78.831511 135.698191
2025-05-11 3.233344 6.746418 13.089994 24.942950 45.919158 80.621072 141.050768
2025-05-18 3.034183 6.497059 12.885539 25.051832 46.956205 83.748661 148.716214
2025-05-25 2.875573 6.312199 12.783481 25.332854 48.298756 87.432846 157.447983
2025-06-01 2.699942 6.076979 12.568482 25.387906 49.233806 90.453646 165.168520
2025-06-08 2.500290 5.773933 12.200646 25.129180 49.579503 92.461271 171.218688
2025-06-15 2.373433 5.611719 12.092840 25.352910 50.810789 96.050647 180.134934
2025-06-22 2.315523 5.592216 12.264785 26.124532 53.093861 101.584021 192.668553